Research is only worth doing if it can inform action and policy. Here you will find overviews of recent research, and why it matters. If this catches your interest and you want to pursue these ideas further, drop me a note.
From "The Link between Volatility and Growth and the Risks of Stabilization Policy," some economic downturns and fluctuations are for the best. Muscles grow when faced with resistance, plants become stronger in the wind, and personal growth happens in the midst of challenges. Economic prosperity is no different. Attempts to stabilize fluctuations come at the cost of long run prosperity.
From "The Fiscal Transmission Mechanism of Inflation," the primary cause of recent inflation is the interaction of fiscal expansion (budget deficits) and monetary expansion, or increases in the money supply that were designed to keep interest rates low. This pattern has been consistent for over fifty years and offers a near-perfect explanation of the post-COVID inflation. The interest rate is the price of borrowing, and it is determined by money supply and demand. Recent interest rate hikes have proven insufficient to curb inflation because high demand for borrowing by government and the private sector is exerting higher upward pressure on rates. The Federal Reserve has continued expanding the money supply to prevent interest rates from rising further.
In "The Distributional Effects of Expansionary Monetary Policy," I show that inflationary policies disproportionately harm the lower classes, and middle class families with children. When prices rise, people look for substitute goods that are less expensive. People who mostly consume necessities don't readily have substitutes for what they buy (groceries? or gasoline?). The wealthy who consume more luxuries can easily make changes. As painful as it is to reduce inflation, not doing so only portends more inequality and pain for the lower class.
My reflections in "Research Diversity, Disruptive Science, and Scientific Consensus" highlight the need for diversity not just in viewpoints, but in research methods. Disruptive, new advances are lacking in many fields. Formulaic approaches and siloed disciplines offer, at best, incremental advances. Radically new ideas should not be dismissed, but allowed to grow. If not summarily dismissed by those who use more typical methods, fundamentally new ideas will either fade away naturally or become groundbreaking advances, and this is what we need.